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Bonnie Dumanis’ big dilemma

San Diego LGBT news

Bonnie Dumanis\Source: Bonnie Dumanis for Mayor

The political landscape in the San Diego mayor’s race has changed dramatically. Recent polls show City Councilman Carl DeMaio and Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher in a virtual dead heat. Republican DeMaio is at 28 percent, with Independent Fletcher close behind at 26 percent, and Democrat Congressman Bob Filner bringing up the flank with 20 percent. Republican District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis is polling at 13 percent.

As a veteran of several political campaigns, a month out from actual voting is the perfect time to read the political tea leaves and they say that Bonnie Dumanis has a dilemma.

While many thought the mayoral race would be a cakewalk for Dumanis, nothing has been further from the truth. The Republican Party ultimately endorsed her rival DeMaio. Her rival Fletcher captured the endorsement of the Police Officer’s Association, then became an Independent and captured those who seem frustrated with our two party system. Filner has set his sights on getting through the primary by being the only Democrat.

Dumanis is the top law enforcement officer in the county but the police and her party are not supporting her. She has been clearly outflanked by her competitors. So why is Dumanis remaining in the race?

She says, “The polls are all over the place right now and show that all candidates are at different levels, different times, depending on the questions that you ask.” Dumanis also said that the same polling company had her down 22 percent one week before she was elected district attorney. That may have been true in her previous race but there is no indication that there is any Dumanis momentum in the mayoral race.

Dumanis would have to win the majority of the 10 percent who are undecided and peel off support from DeMaio, Fletcher and Filner to get to the runoff in November. This scenario is highly unlikely, unless one of her competitors implodes.

Bonnie Dumanis has a couple of dilemmas. If she stays in the race through the June 5 primary and loses, Dumanis will have a target on her back in her next race for district attorney. She will be viewed as a weak candidate and people will line up to oppose her. Of course the same is true if she drops out early.

Dumanis’ additional dilemma is who she will support if she drops out or loses June 5. If she supports DeMaio, the majority of the LGBT community and progressives will view it as a betrayal. DeMaio does not have a lot of support within his LGBT community or with progressives.

If Dumanis throws her support behind Fletcher or Filner, or doesn’t endorse DeMaio, she becomes a pariah in the Republican Party. A dilemma indeed.

There is only one person who wants Dumanis to stay in the race until June 5 and that is Carl DeMaio. Dumanis’ supporters would most likely become supporters of Fletcher or Filner, which could leave DeMaio out in the cold come the June primary.

Given all of these complex choices, will Dumanis stay or will she go? What will Bonnie do?

STAMPP CORBIN

PUBLISHER

San Diego LGBT Weekly

LGBTweekly.com



Short URL: http://lgbtweekly.com/?p=23682

Posted by LGBT Weekly on Apr 26, 2012. Filed under Editorial, Top Highlights. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

4 Comments for “Bonnie Dumanis’ big dilemma”

  1. Poor Bonnie

  2. Bonnie: drop out now! You are sinking faster than the Titanic on an icy night 100 years ago. Let’s face facts: your bad karma has caught up with you and your political career is dead in the water. Take your excessive pension & retire to your million dollar condo with all your ill-gotten gains.

  3. I’m not sure this is as big a dilemma as you suggest. Ms. Dumanis just doesn’t have the spark to ignite her followers. She has been fairly light on her plans for city hall. Sure, she has done good as a district attorney, but being mayor is something completely different.

    I do want to take issue with you when you proclaim that DeMaio doesn’t have a lot of support in the LGBT community. What facts do you have to make that pronouncement? From my view, Carl has strong support throughout the city and that includes LBGT persons. Maybe not the hillcrest crowd but there are many of us who have much at stake in this election, not the least of which is getting our city back in shape. Do LGBT people want more debt for our city? Do they not want to see city services restored? Do they not want to stop wrecking their cars by driving on the worst streets in America? Stop making this is a gay issue. It is not. There is no candidate who more strongly supports the LGBT community than Carl DeMaio. I’ve worked in social services for the LGBT community for many years and I can tell you I have received far more support from Carl than any of the other council members combined, including Todd Gloria. He has championed many of our causes. The LGBT community is not as homogeneous as you might say. We are not just gay but responsible citizens of this city. No one is better qualified or will work harder for ALL San Diegans that Carl DeMaio.

  4. Anyone But Dumanis

    A question: In all likelihood Dumanis will lose in the primaries. Does she then continue on as DA? And when are elections for new DA? Personally, I just want to see Bonnie Dumanis OUT of public office for good, that’s why I ask.

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