Home » Bottom Highlights, Feature Story » Buy, sell or hold: A political investors guide to Election 2012

Buy, sell or hold: A political investors guide to Election 2012

A political investor’s guide to Election 2012

Todd Gloria

By now, you undoubtedly know the candidates who won the elections you care about. Electoral gains, however, aren’t limited to the people who win offices. A variety of other people and interests saw their stock change this week. Here is your investor’s guide to the next round of politicians and issues.

Buy:

Number crunchers. Since the rejuvenation of the Romney campaign after the first debate, there has been a battle between the conservative punditry and the new generation of polling analysts. As election night approached, the number crunchers showed an increasingly likely Obama victory, with his chances near 90 percent by election night. The pundits said the polls, even the “poll of polls” were wrong because they were measuring too liberal an electorate. Tuesday night, the numbers won, with the president winning a sweeping victory much faster than even the pollsters guessed. The victory was engineered by Obama’s head number cruncher, David Plouffe, who ran the 2008 campaign, and kept the voter targeting and turnout machine running through 2012. Overall, a great night for the nerds.

Buy:

Lorena Gonzalez. Progressives have long assumed that the question was when, not if, Gonzalez would run for office. Having led labor’s defeat of Prop. 32 and its support of the victorious Mayor Bob Filner, she is riding a wave of success that may coincide with an open seat in the California Assembly, as Assemblymember Ben Hueso likely runs for the state Senate seat of now Congressman Juan Vargas. Gonzalez would be wise to follow the advice that Sen. Dick Durbin gave then Sen. Barack Obama in 2007: don’t wait.

Sell:

Tony Krvaric. With the possible exception of Carl DeMaio, no one is more identified with the San Diego Republican Party’s embrace of the Tea Party at the expense of a more moderate tradition of mayors including Jerry Sanders and Dick Murphy. With DeMaio defeated and the Council under Democratic control for the foreseeable future, Krvaric’s days are numbered. National conservative leaders may survive by turning their fire on Romney, who was never a true-blue (true-red?) conservative. Having run Carl DeMaio, Krvaric lacks even that option.

Shirley Weber and Toni Atkins

Buy:

Marriage Equality. Even a single victory would have ended the National Organization for Marriage’s talking point that “same-sex marriage has been defeated every time it has been put to a vote.” With apparent victories across the country, including openly lesbian Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Tuesday was a smack-down of intolerance. Equality’s stock has been rising throughout this cycle starting with the endorsement of a sitting president. Nearly as important was the fact that Republicans have chucked the issue as a wedge, knowing that anti-equality candidates turn off independent voters in most races. A slight counter-weight is that trading Congressman Filner for Congressman Vargas actually lost a vote for marriage equality in San Diego’s delegation, but hopefully he’ll come around soon.

Hold:

Progressive Redistricting Efforts. Had Democrats lost control of the City Council, this would be a “Sell.” But Lightner survived, and with Democratic Districts 4 and 8 up in 2014, they will likely retain control until at least 2016. Still, it’s not the 7-2 split some were predicting. If prospects begin to look good for picking up District 6 and a veto-proof majority in 2014, “Buy” may be just on the horizon.

Buy:

Independent Nathan Fletcher. While he could still become a Democrat, were that his plan Fletcher likely would have endorsed Rep. Bob Filner for mayor. Instead, he wisely sat out a very nasty race while endorsing a slate of candidates and initiatives that cemented his independent status. They didn’t all win, but his support of Prop. Z could help him make education a signature issue the next time his name is on the ballot. Under California’s jungle primary, he’s a threat to take the middle in any swing district and add the losing party’s supporters for the general.

Buy:

Nathan Fletcher

Meddling in primaries. People may remember Rep. Todd Akin’s mention of “legitimate rape” more than any other quote from this election cycle. They may not remember that Sen. Claire McCaskill saw it coming. In a tight Republican primary, incumbent Democrat McCaskill saw an opportunity to choose Akin, the most right wing, as her challenger. Cannily running ads that he was “too conservative” for Missouri, she helped drive the far right to the polls for him. When he began to implode, she did what all smart politicians do … stood back and watched, throwing just enough gas on the pyre to ensure moderate and female voters remembered what he said through Election Day.

Sell:

Personhood. Honestly, if you held this stock after a personhood amendment was defeated in Mississippi, get a new broker. Since then, the Supreme Court has refused to hear a challenge to an Oklahoma ruling against allowing it on the state ballot, and both Rep. Akin and Rep. Richard Mourdock have proven that once people know what you mean, you can’t win a Senate race.

Buy:

Councilmember Todd Gloria and Assemblywoman Toni Atkins. Both were early supporter of Scott Peters, and were critical in getting him through the crowded primary. Having seen the spending and ads, even some Saldana supporters wonder if she could have done as well in the general. After winning re-election in the primary, Gloria was instrumental in pulling fellow Democratic Councilwoman Sherri Lightner over the finish line, protecting Democratic control of City Council. Atkins helped get Dr. Shirley Weber into the Assembly, and was a constant presence at local Democratic events, particularly but not exclusively in the LGBT community. In the process, they cemented the concept that Progressive and Democratic politics in San Diego run through the LGBT community. The only thing that could stop one in his or her next election would be running against the other.

Hold:

Pension Reform. Since Prop. B became law, candidate Filner really had no choice but to say he would implement it or feed into an already problematic narrative. Mayor Filner will likely look for ways to stop, delay or moderate it. If the courts are involved, City Attorney Goldsmith may advocate for it, providing re-runs of the Mayor vs. Mike Aguirre, a drama no one wants to watch. Filner’s election gives unions some hope of a better deal, but the process may be long and ugly.

Claire McCaskill

Hold:

Carl DeMaio. Running as a Republican in a major California city is a tough road, and DeMaio isn’t the first to lose a race. If he didn’t spend Wednesday looking at future races, he’ll likely do it soon. Once he finds a race where his fiscal conservatism fits, he can spend the run up deciding whether to keep drinking with the Tea Party or rehab his moderate image. Expect him to be in the mix for county supervisor or U.S. Representative in Republican leaning districts. Depending on the election, round 2 vs. Nathan Fletcher isn’t impossible.

Sell:

San Diego Union-Tribune. Romney landslide? Not so much. But being too excited about your candidate is more forgivable than the polls that showed DeMaio up by 10 and Bilbray by 9. The final numbers may be within their margin of error, but that’s not saying much. If the newsroom wants credibility, they’ll need to overhaul their polling. They could start by talking to some city employees.



Short URL: http://lgbtweekly.com/?p=30938

Posted by on Nov 13, 2012. Filed under Bottom Highlights, Feature Story. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

Leave a Reply

Pride Card Deals

loading...

LGBT Weekly Digital Magazine

© 2017 LGBT Weekly. All Rights Reserved. Log in - Website by BluSkye Group