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Sorry Bernie

Over the last several days, the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign has put forth a narrative that suggests if the super delegates voted according to the vote of their state then Sanders will win the Democratic presidential nomination. Being a Harvard MBA and a numbers nerd, I decided to take a look at the Sanders’ campaign hypothesis.

Taking a close look at the 28 states and territories that have voted thus far in the Democratic presidential primary race, Clinton has 1139 pledged delegates to Sanders 825. However, you often see the totals of 1614 for Clinton and 856 for Sanders based upon super delegates who have committed to their respective campaigns. Sanders has begun to cry foul and suggest that super delegates should vote according to the residents of their states. Super delegates are comprised of elected officials, members of the Democratic National Committee, and so called Distinguished Members of the Democratic Party like Al Gore.

There are 330 super delegates from the 28 states and territories that have voted so far in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. If the super delegates were allocated based upon the percentage of the vote garnered by Clinton and Sanders in each state or territory, Sanders would be allocated 146 super delegates and Clinton would get 184 super delegates.  That would bring Clinton’s delegate total to 1323 and Sanders to 971. That is better than the 1614 to 856 lead that Clinton holds with the currently “committed” super delegates. So Bernie’s hypothesis does prove the delegate race would be closer. What it does not prove is that Sanders campaign would be victorious. In fact, it underscores the uphill battle facing Sanders.

Even with a proportional allocation of super delegates based upon their underlying state or territory, Sanders needs to win a whopping 57.2% of the remaining 2469 delegates and vote in the rest of the primaries and caucuses to overtake Clinton. Is that possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. Sanders needs to beat Clinton in California and New York by 14% or absolutely kill her by high double digits in the other states and territories yet to vote. Highly doubtful.

As a dyed in the wool Democrat, I was willing to spend a Sunday morning actually running the numbers for Sanders hypothetical super delegate proposal, unfortunately for him they paint a bleak picture even if the super delegates voted according to their state results. Sorry Bernie.

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Posted by on Mar 20, 2016. Filed under Editorial, Online Only, Top Highlights. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

4 Comments for “Sorry Bernie”

  1. Highly doubtful. Sorry Bernie. Sorry Stampp.

    You can write so why bother with this drivel. It did not take a Sunday morning to drum up this diddy. Why? It’s kinda like sticking your tongue out cause you jumped a place in line on the ferris wheel. I think to be considered an editorial letter it might have more of a body to understand the content of whatever messaging you bothered to deliver on a Sunday.

  2. Bernie is not crying foul, the voters who support him are crying foul. If the Dem party uses superdelegates to overturn the outcome of the voted delegates in the primary, they will suffer mightily in Nov. Nobody is saying Bernie should have the nomination if less than half of the voters support him, but they are demanding that their reps disengage with the corporate elite who currently control the party and listen to their growing enthusiasm. Less than half of the delegates have been voted, and Bernie’s support grows, Hillary’s declines, it is a race to the end. I’m excited that CA will have such an important role to play in determining this nomination.

  3. “This political revolution that is gaining momentum across America is now resonating all over the world. There is a clear path to victory as we begin the second half of the delegate selection process. We are waging a strong campaign and plan to take it all the way to the Democratic National Convention this summer in Philadelphia.” — Bernie Sanders, on 03.21.16, after winning Democrats Abroad’s Global Presidential Primary, defeating Hillary Clinton 69% to 31%.

  4. None of this matters.
    The office of President is not determined by a popularity contest, let alone a popular vote. If that were the case right now Trump would be a shoe in.

    It was already decided back in June of 2015 the Clinton would be president.
    All of this election and convention bullshit is a distraction, an illusion to keep the American People separated from reality.

    I would like to be wrong, but at least I am not living in denial.

    Liz

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