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Election 2016: What to watch on Tuesday

Politically Aware

United States presidential election day 2016, message Vote, patriotic background

All Day: slate.com

News outlets have traditionally avoided announcing election results until the polls in a state have closed, out of fear that voters might stay home if they knew what was happening. Believing the point of journalism is to provide citizens with information, not protect them from it, slate.com has partnered with VoteCastr to provide projections in battleground states throughout Election Day. They won’t know how people have voted, but they will try to replicate the analysis of pre-election surveys and direct observation of turnout that campaigns have long used to know the election results before the masses. These internal campaign projections aren’t perfect, as almost President John Kerry and Karl Rove  will tell you, but slate.com‘s coverage could give Americans the best real-time Election Day projections we’ve seen in years.

5:45 PM EST/2:45 PST

Around this time, networks will begin to report the results of exit polls, which ask people for whom they voted and record a variety of other opinions and demographics. I’ll be watching three things closely: gender, Latino/Hispanic identification, and education. Women made up 53% of the electorate in 2012, and this year they favor Clinton by about 13 points. If 55% of voters this year are women, as has been seen in some early voting, Clinton may have an easy victory. Similarly, an uptick in Latino/Hispanic voting, as has been noted in Nevada in Florida, would suggest Clinton might outperform her polling. College educated voters seem to be the traditional Republican constituency most turned off by Trump, so any increase in their numbers will clearly benefit Clinton.

6:00 PM EST/3:00 PST

Polls close in most of Indiana and Kentucky. Both should be easy wins for Trump but the Senate race in Indiana is considered a toss-up. If Evan Bayh is wins, the Democrats will likely take the Senate with a seat or two to spare. Indiana’s 9th Congressional District is considered “Lean Republican,” the kind of seat Democrats would need if they have any hope of retaking the House of Representatives.

7:00 PM EST/4:00 PST

If Virginia is close, Clinton could be in trouble. If Georgia is close, she could be headed to a landslide.

7:30 PM EST/4:30 PST

Polls close in North Carolina and Ohio. Both have significant early voting, so calls could be made early. If Clinton wins either, it’s hard to see how Trump wins. If Deborah Ross wins the North Carolina Senate race, Democrats will likely take control.

8:00 PM EST/5:00 PST

Polls close in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (and elsewhere). All were considered part of Clinton’s firewall of 272 electoral votes, 2 more than she needs. Trump has made a late run in Michigan and New Hampshire, where polls seem to be tightening. If Clinton wins all 3, she likely wins, even if she loses in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. Clinton can probably survive a loss in  New Hampshire and maybe even Michigan by picking up Nevada and North Carolina. A loss in Pennsylvania would cripple her chances. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Missouri also feature competitive Senate races that Democrats need to win, especially if they lose Indiana and North Carolina.

9:00 PM EST/6:00 PST

Former Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold was a clear favorite to win back his seat for most of the election cycle, but recent polling shows him with the slimmest of leads. If Feingold or Clinton are losing Wisconsin, they could be in for a bad night. Similarly, Colorado is part of Clinton’s firewall, so a loss would be a problem. Polls also close in Arizona, which is Clinton’s second best chance (after North Carolina) to take a state won by Romney in 2012. In another Arizona race to watch, Democrats are working to unseat the infamously anti-immigrant Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

10:00 PM EST/7:00 PST

Iowa is Trump’s best chance to win a state that went for Obama in 2012. If he can’t win there, Clinton probably matches or surpasses Obama’s 332 electoral votes. Nevada is the only Senate race where Republicans are competitive to take a Democratic seat, and Clinton could need a win here to offset losses elsewhere. Utah could make history, and a great trivia question, if independent candidate Evan McMullin becomes the first third party candidate to win electoral votes since George Wallace in 1968.

11:00 PM EST/8:00 PST

NBC called the 2012 Presidential race for President Obama at 11:12, so if the dynamics are similar, look for a call at this point. We will also start hearing about local races. Keep in mind that absentee ballots favor Republicans in this area, so don’t write off Democrats who are behind. The race to watch will be Doug Applegate’s attempt to take out incumbent Rep. Darryl Issa. If Rep. Scott Peters is ahead when you go to bed, expect local Democrats like Sup. Dave Roberts and Mara Elliott to do well.

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Posted by on Nov 7, 2016. Filed under Around the Nation, Commentary, Online Only, Politically Aware, Top Highlights. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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